Potential distributions of a invasive species Conyza bonariensis (Compositae) in China as predicted by MaxEnt

Abstract:

Conyza bonariensis (L.) Crong. is a annual or biennial plant of Compositae, native to South American. It is one of the most harmful and execrable weeds in mainland China. We applied Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche modeling to predict this species’ potential range in China on the basis of occurence points. The results indicated that environmental parameters such as Mean temperature of the coldest quarter, Annual mean temperature, Min temperature of the coldest month, Mean temperature of the driest quarter, Precipitation of the driest month and Precipitation of the driest quarter largely influenced the distribution of Conyza bonariensis. Most Chinese provinces excluding Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning are predicted the suitable habitat of Conyza bonariensis. Areas that we predict to have potential invasion were larger than that had been invaded. Therefore, Conyza bonariensis is predicted to continue to expand in China. West Sichuan, south Yunnan, north Shanxi, northwest Shandong, north Shanxi and most regions of Gansu and Hebei have not been occupied, but these areas are very close to the areas that have been invaded, so intense attention should be given to strengthen the management of these areas to prevent Conyza bonariensis from further spreading.

Key words:Conyza bonariensis; MaxEnt model; Invasive alien plant; Distribution area; Predic