China's export trade industrial structure multi-objective optimization based on a multi-scale input-output analysis method

Abstract:

The risk of resource loss caused by exports is a hot topic nowadays. This paper focuses on resource flow, analyzes contribution rates of influencing factors to changes in resource flow dynamically, and then offers optimized export restructure strategies during the period from 2018 to 2022. In the analytic framework, firstly, the economic input-output table and energy-water consumption data are used to calculate the direct and complete consumption coefficients of water and energy; Secondly, to provide a reference for scenario definition and future export restructure, the authors use the structural decomposition analysis model to identify the main reasons for the variation of the resources flow. Besides, the authors use clustering analysis to identify sectoral water and energy consumption disparity and the potential for resource-saving. At last, this paper uses a bi-objective optimization model to optimize the export structure. The empirical analysis indicates that the volume of exports is found as the primary contributor to resource flow; direct energy consumption intensity helps to reduce energy outflow caused by export, while the reduction of total water consumption intensity greatly reduces the risk of resource loss, which is consistent with the reality. Cluster analysis offers the improving directions, and the optimization result shows that faced with the extension of export, reducing the energy-water coefficient helps to achieve resources conservation. Besides, this paper argues that the marginal output derived from technological improvement shows a gradually increasing effect.